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注意力的经济学
从赫伯特·西蒙的稀缺定律、幂律网络到创作者商业的转化漏斗
The Economics of Attention: Simon's Scarcity Law, Power-Law Networks and Conversion Funnels in Creator Commerce
DOI10.5281/zenodo.23689302摘要
内容不再稀缺时，什么是稀缺的？赫伯特·西蒙指出「信息的丰富造成注意力的贫乏」。本书用经济学、网络科学与决策理论研究这种稀缺：一个人一天的注意力上限（约每秒 10 比特、每天约 72 千字节的有意识处理量）与影子价格；优先连接如何产生幂律与极端集中的受众（附网络生长模拟与基尼系数）；Bikhchandani–Hirshleifer–Welch 信息级联与格兰诺维特阈值模型，解释直播间为何要么爆发、要么冷场；把转化漏斗写成吸收马尔可夫链，算出每一环的弹性；罗歇–梯若尔双边市场、阿姆斯特朗定价规则与平台—机构—创作者之间的双重加价；以及科斯、施蒂格勒、阿克洛夫与斯彭斯视角下，结构化数据与知识图谱如何降低信任陌生人的成本。
全书八章，并与司马迁《史记·货殖列传》（「善者因之」「人弃我取，人取我与」、范蠡「三致千金，再分散」）并读；最后给出一份创作者与品牌方的四周注意力账本，以及一项比较「长内容深度」与「高频短内容」对 90 天复购率影响的预注册随机对照试验方案（每组 3,939 人，等效性判定规则写成代码）。书中以标注框区分已发表的证据、可运行的 Python 计算（28 段，全部核对）、原典与作者的假说，每个假说都写明什么结果会推翻它。本书不是商业、投资或法律建议。
关键词：注意力经济；赫伯特·西蒙；幂律；优先连接；信息级联；转化漏斗；双边市场；创作者经济
Abstract
When content is no longer scarce, what is? Herbert Simon observed that "a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention". This book applies economics, network science and decision theory to that scarcity: the daily ceiling on human attention (about 10 bits per second of conscious throughput, some 72 kilobytes a day) and its shadow price; how preferential attachment produces power laws and highly concentrated audiences, with a network-growth simulation and Gini coefficients; the Bikhchandani–Hirshleifer–Welch model of information cascades and Granovetter's threshold model, which explain why a live-commerce room either takes off or stays empty; the conversion funnel as an absorbing Markov chain, with the elasticity of every link; Rochet and Tirole's two-sided markets, Armstrong's pricing rule and double marginalisation between platforms, agencies and creators; and, through Coase, Stigler, Akerlof and Spence, how structured data and knowledge graphs lower the cost of trusting a stranger.
The eight chapters are read beside Sima Qian's "Biographies of the Money-Makers" in the Shiji, and end with a four-week attention ledger for creators and brands and a pre-registered randomised trial comparing long-form depth with high-frequency short content on 90-day repeat purchase, with an equivalence-style decision rule written as code. Marked boxes separate published evidence, runnable Python calculations (28, all checked), classical sources and the author's hypotheses, each with the result that would refute it. The book is not business, investment or legal advice.
Keywords: attention economy; Herbert Simon; power laws; preferential attachment; information cascades; conversion funnel; two-sided markets; creator economy
目录 · Contents
- 序：内容不再稀缺时，什么是稀缺的？English 中文Preface: What Is Scarce When Content Is Not?
- 第一章 西蒙的稀缺定律：一天的预算English 中文Chapter 1. Simon's Scarcity Law: The Budget of a Day
- 第二章 幂律：观众为什么会集中English 中文Chapter 2. Power Laws: Why Audiences Concentrate
- 第三章 信息级联：直播间为什么会爆发或冷场English 中文Chapter 3. Information Cascades: Why a Room Explodes or Stays Empty
- 第四章 作为马尔可夫链的转化漏斗English 中文Chapter 4. The Conversion Funnel as a Markov Chain
- 第五章 双边市场与抽成博弈English 中文Chapter 5. Two-Sided Markets and the Commission Game
- 第六章 机器可读的声誉：知识图谱时代的科斯English 中文Chapter 6. Machine-Readable Reputation: Coase in the Age of Knowledge Graphs
- 第七章 《货殖列传》中的商人English 中文Chapter 7. The Money-Makers of the Shiji
- 第八章 实践：四周注意力账本与预注册试验English 中文Chapter 8. Practice: A Four-Week Attention Ledger and a Pre-Registered Trial
How to cite · 引用
Fan, Y. (2026). The Economics of Attention: Simon's Scarcity Law, Power-Law Networks and Conversion Funnels in Creator Commerce [注意力的经济学] (Version 1.0.0). 5D Library. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23689302
BibTeX
@book{fan2026economics,
title = {{The Economics of Attention}: Simon's Scarcity Law, Power-Law Networks and Conversion Funnels in Creator Commerce},
author = {Fan, Yafu},
year = {2026},
publisher = {5D Library},
edition = {Version 1.0.0},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23689302},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23689302},
note = {Chinese title: 注意力的经济学}
}
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23689302 |
|---|---|
| DOI（全部版本 all versions） | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23689301 |
| ORCID | https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3519-1203 |
| 5D Library ID | 5DL-B-006 |
| 版本 Version | 1.0.0 · 中英双语版 Bilingual edition |
| 出版日期 Date | 2026-10-27 |
| 网址 Online | https://5dlibrary.com/books/economics-of-attention/ |
| SHA-256 · economics-of-attention_bilingual_v1.0.0.pdf | b2b7cc33eb5228a49e34da11ba3e46e3d03897cf3d7bceee555acf69acaca0b9 |
| SHA-256 · economics-of-attention_en_v1.0.0.pdf | e6e0320a80eb24b68aef2416bf10d6901775a430b0b6688ded548524a81472a5 |
| SHA-256 · economics-of-attention_zh_v1.0.0.pdf | d4ea1f02e9511f18500ab128854ab94656f9a88ae4e03a963679183289d5af53 |
| Licence · 许可 | Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
Disclosure. The author is the founder and chief strategist of Yafu Global and of Asia Influencer X (asiainfluencerx.com), an agency for creators and live commerce in Southeast Asia, and of marketingconsultantasia.com, and so has a direct commercial interest in the creator economy and digital marketing discussed in this book. The book does not promote any service package or price; every mathematical model, all the Python code and the study protocol are published openly for anyone to test.