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Chapter 7 Source Texts: “Fate Is Made by Oneself”

Yuan Liaofan and Master Kong

Late in life the Ming scholar Yuan Huang (style name Liaofan, 1533–1606) wrote instructions for his son that later circulated as the Four Lessons of Liaofan. The first lesson, “On Establishing One’s Destiny”, tells his own story: as a youth he met a Master Kong, skilled in Shao Yong’s numerological method, who calculated the course of his life.

Source text

孔为余起数:县考童生,当十四名;府考七十一名,提学考第九名。明年赴考,三处名数皆合。复为卜终身休咎,言:某年考第几名,某年当补廪,某年当贡,贡后某年,当选四川一大尹,在任三年半,即宜告归。五十三岁八月十四日丑时,当终于正寝,惜无子。……余因此益信进退有命,迟速有时,澹然无求矣。(袁黄 1601)

Kong cast my numbers: in the county examination I would place fourteenth, in the prefectural seventy-first, and in the provincial education commissioner’s examination ninth. The next year I sat them, and all three placings matched. He then divined my fortunes for life: in such a year I would place so-and-so; in such a year I would receive a stipend; in such a year I would be recommended to the capital; some years after that I would be appointed magistrate of a large county in Sichuan, serve three and a half years, and then do well to retire. At fifty-three, on the fourteenth day of the eighth month, between one and three in the morning, I would die in my own bed, sadly without a son. … From this I believed all the more that advance and retreat are fated, early and late have their times, and I became calm and wanted nothing. (Yuan Huang, Four Lessons of Liaofan, “On Establishing One’s Destiny”)

For years afterwards, “whenever I was examined, my placings never departed from what Master Kong had set down”. Yuan concluded that everything was fixed and stopped striving. The turn came at Qixia Mountain near Nanjing, where he sat facing the Chan master Yungu for three days and nights “without a single stray thought”. The master asked why; Yuan replied that his fate had been calculated, so there was nothing to hope for. The master laughed that he was just an ordinary man after all.

Source text

余问曰:然则数可逃乎?曰:命由我作,福自己求。诗书所称,的为明训。(袁黄 1601)

I asked: “Then can one escape one’s numbers?” He said: “Fate is made by oneself; blessings are sought by oneself. What the Odes and the Documents say is clear teaching indeed.” (ibid.)

Yuan then vowed to do good and kept a ledger of merits and faults. By his own account Master Kong’s predictions began to fail: “Master Kong had calculated that I would place third, but suddenly I placed first; his words did not come true, and I passed the provincial examination”; he had predicted danger at fifty-three, but “that year passed without harm, and I am now sixty-nine”; he had predicted no son, but Yuan later had a son, Tianqi.

Reading it again in this book’s language

The story can be retold in the framework of the earlier chapters, but its limits need marking first.

First, why were Master Kong’s predictions so accurate in the early years? One possible explanation is that a person’s situation, abilities and patterns of behaviour are fairly stable over a period, so fairly accurate predictions can be made from them; and once the subject believes the prediction and becomes “calm and wanting nothing”, his behaviour becomes even more fixed and the prediction more accurate still. In Chapter 2’s terms, a very precise prior (“my fate is fixed”) is confirmed through action (no more effort, no more trying).

Second, why did the predictions later fail? Because Yuan changed his strategy of behaviour, and the stable pattern on which the predictions were built no longer existed. This fits Chapter 6: determinism does not mean predictability, and when the system itself changes, predictions based on its old state fail.

Note

The limits of this reading. The Four Lessons is a book of family instruction urging virtue, with explicit moral and religious aims. It is the author’s retrospective account of his own life, without independent verification; details such as “all three placings matched” cannot be checked against records of the time. The causal link that the book draws between Yuan’s later fortunes (passing the metropolitan examination, a son, long life) and his good deeds is told from faith, and this book neither can nor tries to prove it. What is read here beside active inference is the structure “when the person predicted changes, the prediction fails”, not the efficacy of a merit ledger.

Seeds and perfuming

Yogācāra Buddhism uses “seeds” and “perfuming” to describe how experience shapes consciousness and how it later becomes manifest.

Source text

何法名为种子?谓本识中亲生自果功能差别。(玄奘 译 659 AD)

诸论亦说染净种子由染净法熏习故生,此即名为习所成种。(玄奘 译 659 AD)

What is called a seed? It is the distinct potency, within the root consciousness, that directly produces its own result.

The treatises also say that defiled and pure seeds arise through the perfuming of defiled and pure dharmas; these are called seeds produced by habituation. (Cheng Weishi Lun, translated by Xuanzang, fascicle 2)

The first sentence defines a seed: a latent potency in the root consciousness (ālaya-vijñāna) that directly produces its own result. The second says that seeds can be formed by the perfuming of experience, “seeds produced by habituation”. Later teachers often summed up the cycle as “seeds give rise to manifest activity, and manifest activity perfumes seeds”: latent tendencies produce present mental activity, and present activity in turn strengthens or alters the latent tendencies. That summary is later teaching language, not the text of the Cheng Weishi Lun.

The structure is close to Chapter 2’s agent: the outcome prior (seed) drives action (manifest activity), and the experience action brings updates the prior (perfuming). Both describe a loop that sustains itself and can also be changed.

“Transforming consciousness into wisdom” is a summary of what fascicle 10 of the Cheng Weishi Lun describes as turning the eight defiled consciousnesses into the four wisdoms (great mirror wisdom, wisdom of equality, wisdom of wondrous observation, wisdom of accomplishing what is to be done). In Yogācāra this is the final fruit of practice, not a cognitive technique reached in a few exercises; to compare it with “reshaping a prior” says only that both involve a change in fundamental cognitive structure, and no more.

“If one can turn things”

Source text

一切众生从无始来迷己为物,失于本心,为物所转,故于是中观大观小。若能转物,则同如来,身心圆明,不动道场,于一毛端遍能含受十方国土。(般剌蜜帝 译 705 AD)

All beings, since beginningless time, have mistaken themselves for things, lost their original mind and been turned by things; so within this they see large and see small. If one can turn things, one is the same as the Tathāgata: body and mind perfectly bright, unmoving in the place of awakening, and on the tip of a single hair able to contain the lands of the ten directions. (Śūraṅgama Sūtra, fascicle 2)

The contrast between “being turned by things” and “turning things” can be read as another statement of Chapter 3’s two routes: a mind pulled by external things has its state set by its input; a mind that can “turn things” is no longer set one-way by its input. This is a goal of religious practice; the sutra’s “same as the Tathāgata” lies far beyond anything a model in cognitive science can discuss.

Note

The Śūraṅgama Sūtra is traditionally said to have been translated by Pramiti in the Tang dynasty, but scholars have long suspected that it was composed in China, and the question is still debated. This book quotes it because the passage is very influential in the Chinese-speaking world, not as a judgement on its origin.

The value and the limits of reading them together

These three texts share a structure with active inference: the state of mind shapes behaviour and experience, and experience in turn shapes the mind; carried along by the loop, the result looks like fate; become aware of one link in the loop and change it, and the result changes. That is the value of reading them together.

But the reading must not go too far. Yuan’s merit ledger, Yogācāra’s transformation of the basis and the Śūraṅgama’s “same as the Tathāgata” are each embedded in a complete moral and religious system with its own aims and standards; active inference is a mathematical framework whose models are used in this book only to show possible mechanisms. Using either side to “prove” the other is unfair to both.

Hypothesis · not established

Not established. Keeping a structured behaviour log for some time (like a merit ledger, but recording only behaviour and outcome, with no moral scoring) improves the accuracy with which the keeper predicts their own behaviour patterns and reduces repeated setbacks. The hypothesis predicts that in an eight-week randomised study the log group predicts “in which situations will I guard next week” at least 15 percentage points more accurately than controls, and has at least 20 % fewer setback events. If the groups do not differ, the hypothesis is refuted.

References

玄奘 译. 659 AD. 成唯识论.
般剌蜜帝 译. 705 AD. 大佛顶如来密因修证了义诸菩萨万行首楞严经.
袁黄. 1601. 了凡四训·立命之学.

Fan, Y. (2026). The Sandbox, Determinism and Active Inference: Markov Blankets, Variational Free-Energy Minimisation, Exploration-Exploitation Trade-offs and East Asian Causality in Computational Neuroscience [沙盘、宿命与主动推理] (Version 1.0.0). 5D Library. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23738794 · Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).